Will We Have Palin to Kick Around Anymore?
Anyone who knows me well probably knows two things about me.
1. My opinion of the outgoing governor of Alaska.
2. I procrastinate while I work.
In lieu of Governor Palin’s surprising decision that almost assuredly removes her as a viable candidate for the presidency in 2012, several former leaders of the Republican Party provide examples of how to best employ one’s time in the Wilderness.
Richard Nixon: After he lost the presidency in 1960, Nixon seemingly retired from political life, until he announced his candidacy for the governorship of California in 1962. Suspicion that Nixon was only seeking the statehouse to vault himself back into national politics dogged his underdog campaign and he convincingly lost to incumbent Pat Brown. The former vice president gave an awkward concession speech in which he attacked the press for being in the tank for Brown and misrepresenting his statement. He concluded what turned out to be a retirement speech by chastising the assembled reporters for forcing him to withdraw from public life, famously concluding in what he said was his last press conference, that they would not have “Nixon to kick around anymore.”
Nixon’s retirement from politics at age forty-nine surprised people across the nation. The former vice president had been a national figure since investigating Alger Hiss in the late 1940s and was considered the rising star of the Republican Party. Nixon went to Wall Street to become a corporate lawyer, where he performed rather well, though he confessed to a friend that the boredom of legal work would leave him “mentally dead in two years, and physically dead in four.” In 1964, Nixon campaigned for Barry Goldwater. Two years later, in the midterm elections, he went state to state raising money and giving speeches for Republican congressional candidates. The strategy, which Nixon lays out quite clearly in his memoirs, was to advance the party while developing mutally beneficial relationships with as many policymakers as possible. As the Republicans performed rather well in the midterms, although not officially a candidate, Nixon was a presumed frontrunner for the 1968 election. His support was nationwide in the Republican Party and no potential candidate could match his resources at the grassroots level. By the time the primaries began, his nomination was a foregone conclusion.
Richard Nixon’s example is one Palin might be wise to follow. No one in the G.O.P. has the star power she possesses and representatives from conservative districts would race to have a fundraiser with the charismatic celebrity. Although the nominating system today in no way resembled that of 1968, where party elites held a great deal more sway, Palin stumping for Republicans in the 2010 midterms would at least earn her the gratitude of many at the base level and, if the Republicans perform well, which if the economy and history are any factor, they probably will, could vault her back into the national spotlight as credibile figure.
Popularity in the grassroots Republican ranks, however, may not translate at a national level, nor in the primaries where independents and Democrats are permitted to register. In associating herself with the far right, she may discount herself as a viable political figure in the Republican primaries. As the nominations of McCain, Dole, and Bush I demonstrate, Republicans are strategic voters in contested fields, and a more moderate candidate might perform better.
Ronald Reagan:
Like Reagan, Sarah Palin vaulted onto the political scene through a speech. Reagan’s “Time For Choosing Address” in support of Barry Goldwater in 1964 outlined a conservative manifesto from which the Great Communicator rarely departed over the next twenty-five years. Palin’s address to the RNC in 2008 may have been the highwater mark of her national career, although it was bereft of the vision and ideological appeal of Reagan’s message, which is still widely circulated among conservatives today and simply referred to as “The Speech.”
Reagan’s address brought in more money for the Republican Party than any other event in the otherwise dismal 1964 election, with many checks postdated for after the election. It also excited California Republicans who eagerly sought to regain control of the government. Once elected in 1966, and reelected in 1970, Reagan’s communication skills served him well as he seemingly effortlessly built an enduring coalition of supporters from Barry Goldwater’s limited government philosophy and social conservatives dissatisfied with the direction of the nation following the tumult of the 1960s. Declining to run for a third term in 1974, Reagan challenged incumbent President Gerald Ford two years later for the presidency, nearly capturing the nomination. Although 65 years old, after Ford’s defeat, Reagan appeared to be the future of the Republican Party.
Despite his promise, Reagan was out of elected office. Although he stumped for conservatives across the country in 1978, his path back to power in 1980 differed from Nixon’s. Reagan delivered a widely syndicated biweekly radio address on the affairs of the day, usually taking aim at President Carter’s foreign policy and the inefficiencies of the welfare state while unabashedly celebrating pride in traditional American values at a time where the country’s moral was perhaps at its lowest ebb in recent memory.
Reagan’s editorials, the drafts of which indicate he wrote himself, accomplished two goals. They kept him relevant in national political discourse while simultaneously kept his ideas fresh and forced him to grapple with national issues that could appeal to a wide audience. Reagan was blessed with a photographic memory and a brilliant style of oratory that made his compositions appear spontaneous and sincere, two qualities Americans profess to desire out of politicians.
Sarah Palin has neither the mastery of language nor is she at the forefront of an ideological reaction to modern liberalism, but Reagan’s ascent forty years ago is all the easier today as the internet and proliferation of television news coverages lowers the costs of relaying a message to the masses. Palin’s style irritates many, but millions find it endearing. Her devotees, and there are legions of them, are emotionally invested in her political fortunes and take upfronts to her character and family personally. She has a base of supporters from which she can expand, if she desires, and she can manipulate the media for this effect by creating controversies and using her star power to make her the de facto leader of the Republican opposition to President Obama.
Sarah Palin could become to the conservative movement what Reagan was to it in the wake of Watergate, if she can display greater ideological coherence while simultaneously broadening her appeal toward Republicans suspicious of her motives.
Newt Gingrich:
After the debacle of the 1998 midterms, where the Republicans lost seats despite the Monica Lewinsky scandal, the charismatic Gingrich resigned as Speaker of the House of Representatives and has not sought nor held elective office since. A polarizing figure in his time in the national spotlight, Gingrich was also a policy wonk who over the past decade has lent his influence toward advancing a host of small government programs developed by conservative think tanks. He is also a regular sparring partner on television talk shows and usually puts forth a strong and disciplined message on behalf of the Republican Party.
Sarah Palin has been accused of being many things, but a master of public policy is not one of them. Indeed, she appeared unprepared and uninformed while off script on a host of issues during the 2008 campaign. Nonetheless, if Palin is truly done with politics, she could employ her influence ala Gingrich in organizing social conservatives across the nations into a coherent lobby under her nominal direction which could possess considerable influence in moving public debate, and especially in Republican circles.
Abraham Lincoln:
Comparing oneself to Lincoln is always a bad idea. Comparing our contemporary politicians to the Great Emancipator will only make the deficiencies in our current crop of politicos all the more glaring. Nonetheless, Lincoln’s road out of political oblivion offers another alternative to Governor Palin.
Lincoln famously lost the 1858 Illinois Senate Election to Stephen A. Douglas, but emerged from it as a national figure with potential for the Republican nomination two years later. Lincoln only captured the nomination because a deadlock existed between the other contenders that emerged out of personal rivalries and regional politics. Should the field seeking the Republican nomination fail to produce a clear front runner before the onset of the primaries, Palin possesses the political capital to enter the raise and immediately alter its dynamics. Although a loser with no record, she, like Lincoln in 1860, appealed to her supporters as a champion of righteousness with a broad appeal that could unite the party. There is no shortage of dissatisfaction with Obama, and he should be a vulnerable incumbent come 2011. The probablility of a drawn out and bitter race between candidates like Romney and Huckabee (whose supporters blame each other for losing the race) or a fiscal conservative alienating the social conservatives might leave Palin in a strong position, if she chooses her battles wisely, keeps herself relevant and moderates her rhetoric.
There are probably other courses that could be pursued, but its time for me to return to work.
